This is the latest forecast from the UK's independent Centre for Economic Forecasting and Analysis (CEBR) in the World Economic League Table (WELT) rankings.

Specifically, the report states that in recent years, Vietnam has maintained strong GDP growth, exceeding the global average and ranking among the highest in the Asia-Pacific region.

However, CEBR experts predict that the annual GDP growth rate is projected to slow to an average of 5.5% during the 2026–2030 period. The main reason is believed to be weakening exports, as trade tensions and slowing growth in major partners such as the US, China, and the European Union reduce demand.

Over the next decade, CEBR forecasts that the Vietnamese economy will grow at an average rate of 5.3% per year. Within the next 15 years, Vietnam's position on the World Economic Rankings will improve. Specifically, Vietnam's GDP is projected to reach US$524 billion in 2025 and US$1,407 billion by 2040, becoming the 27th largest economy in the world, surpassing other ASEAN economies such as Singapore (US$864 billion) and Thailand (US$839 billion).

Forecast of Vietnam's GDP at current prices. (Source: CEBR)

Regarding GDP per capita, according to data from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), the estimated GDP per capita in 2025 at current prices is 125.5 million VND/person, equivalent to 5,026 USD, an increase of 326 USD compared to 2024 (4,700 USD). With this result, Vietnam officially joins the group of upper-middle-income countries.

Regarding this indicator, CEBR experts predict that Vietnam's GDP per capita is clearly on the rise, both in absolute terms and in its relative position on the global economic map. From approximately US$4,536 in 2024, per capita income is projected to increase to US$5,087 in 2026 and reach approximately US$6,444 in 2030.

CEBR Forecast of Vietnam's GDP per capita at current prices by 2040. Source: CEBR

Furthermore, by 2035 this figure could reach $9,149, and $12,559 by 2040. Not only will the quantity increase, but Vietnam will also improve its ranking: from approximately 123-124 currently to the top 120 by 2030, top 112 by 2035, and top 107 by 2040.

By 2050, Vietnam aims to be a powerful nation, with a GDP per capita of approximately $38,000.

According to Resolution 252/2025 amending and supplementing several articles of Resolution 81/2023 of the National Assembly on the National Master Plan for the period 2021-2030, with a vision to 2050, Vietnam aims to achieve an average GDP growth rate of over 8% per year during the period 2021-2030. Specifically, during the period 2026-2030, Vietnam aims to achieve a growth rate of 10% or higher per year.

By 2030, the GDP per capita at current prices is projected to reach approximately US$8,500. Notably, the service sector's share of GDP is expected to exceed 50%, the industrial and construction sector over 40% (with manufacturing accounting for approximately 28%), and the agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector below 10%.

Furthermore, Vietnam's average social labor productivity growth rate is projected to reach approximately 7% per year during the period 2021-2030. Specifically, it is expected to exceed 8.5% per year during the 2026-2030 period. Moreover, the contribution of total factor productivity (TFP) to growth is projected to exceed 55%.

According to the Resolution, the vision for 2050 is for Vietnam to be a strong, prosperous, and happy nation; a developed, high-income country with a complete, synchronized, and modern socialist-oriented market economy; a just, democratic, and civilized society; and social governance based on a complete digital society.

The resolution outlines a vision for the period from 2031 to 2050, striving for an average GDP growth rate of approximately 7.0-7.5% per year. By 2050, Vietnam's GDP per capita at current prices is expected to reach approximately US$38,000. The urbanization rate is projected to reach 70-75%, and the Human Development Index (HDI) is expected to exceed 0.85...