Can cash flow from securities 'flow' to real estate?

In 2020, despite being affected by the Covid-19 epidemic, Vietnam's VNINDEX stock certificate increased quite dramatically in 2020. In the trading session on January 13, the morning VN-Index had some time. increased to 1,200.66 points. VN-Index reached the psychological threshold of 1,200 points and then the market adjusted down for 3 consecutive sessions.

 

The last time VNINDEX Securities reached a peak of 1,200 points was in April 2018.

 

 

Experts predict that the strong shaking of stocks may prompt investors to look for a "vent" to other assets that are less volatile.

 

After the unsettling sessions of the stock market last week, many experts forecast that the market may have a sentiment to shift capital flows from securities to real estate according to the "ventilator" rule between the two asset markets. .

 

Observing the investment market over the past two decades, Ms. Nguyen Thi Thanh Huong, General Director of Dai Phuc Land, said that in many ups and downs, these two channels are connected. Accordingly, explosive capital flows from the stock channel tend to stop at the real estate market to take profits, also known as the trend of asset realization. Similarly, if the stock market has negative volatility, financial investors are more likely to return to the real estate market to find a safer haven.

 

Ms. Huong analyzed, short-term capital flows often land on the stock market, gold or foreign currency because these channels have high flexibility and low capital, making it difficult to access real estate assets. The choice of investment channel will depend on the taste, resources as well as expectations and understanding of investors. However, for investors with large capital flows, they can divide their eggs into many baskets and find it hard to resist the allure of real estate because of its high profitability, little rapid fluctuations on a session or daily basis, and at the same time a a relatively safe haven.

 

According to CEO Dai Phuc Land, after witnessing the panic sessions of the stock market, large capital flows can rearrange the order of priorities, redirecting to real estate more. Investor psychology still prefers to keep money safe in assets and many statistical data have proven that in the long-term 5-10 years, the profit rate of real estate is always much higher than other investment channels. Ms. Huong cited Batdongsan.com.vn's source. Statistics at the end of 2020 showed that within 10 years, stock gold only doubled, but real estate increased 5-7 times.

 

"Investment must consider taste, but the final destination, efficiency decides everything. With the dual characteristics of investing with good profit margins and limiting risks, or accumulating and exploiting, real estate. Property can become a redirecting target for large-cap securities investors in 2021," Huong forecast.

 

 

Nearly 300 codes on HoSE fell to the floor, including the entire VN30 group in the afternoon session of January 28. Photo: Anh Tu.

 

Sharing this view, Mr. Tran Khanh Quang, General Director of Viet An Hoa Company, who has more than 20 years of experience in the banking and finance industry and real estate, analyzed, after the VN-Index plunged at the end of the month. In January 2021, it is difficult for investors to avoid the cautious sentiment. They certainly do not forget the history of the stock market, which has experienced several periods of decline that almost made investors lose everything. This development may prompt investors to look for another "vent" with less volatility, which is real estate.

 

CEO Viet An Hoa cited, if you review real estate at the bottom in several crises over the past two decades, even the strongest recession, the maximum decrease in house prices is only 35-50%. That is, even to the bottom, in the end, there are still existing assets that can still be used or exploited. Moreover, the phenomenon of real estate depreciating often does not happen overnight or a few days.

 

On the contrary, stocks rise and fall very quickly, the range is limited to days and once it has plummeted, the domino effect on market sentiment is huge. Just a few hours late, sometimes stock investors lose all their capital. For the real estate market, real estate takes a long time to adjust, so property holders have enough time to find solutions to capital flows.

 

Even in the session VN-Index lost more than 73 points, making securities investors panic, Ms. Trang Bui, Senior Director of JLL Vietnam also forecasted that in the near future, a wave of flow shift is likely to occur. capital from stocks to real estate.

 

This expert explained, if this capital movement occurs, this is not a new phenomenon because it is not the first time money "runs" from stocks to real estate. "Vietnamese people have a strong mentality to wear durable clothes, from the shock of selling off when stocks plummet, they will definitely put on the balance between stocks and real estate to consider the channel to choose to send gold," said Ms. Trang. .

 

Meanwhile, the deputy general director of a foreign-owned securities company in Ho Chi Minh City said that the transfer of money from securities to real estate to realize assets has not been massive enough to form a trend.

 

"The cash flow is now withdrawn just to take a break to welcome the New Year and still wait for the opportunity to return to the stock market when the market is more active," he said, asserting that there is still no clear signal to confirm that the stock has reversed to increase. reduction.

 

Sharing the same opinion, Mr. Le Anh Tuan - Research Director of Dragon Capital Vietnam Investment Fund Management Joint Stock Company (DCVFM) added, the trend is not easy to change because "not everyone who invests in securities has finished investing in the stock market as well. enough capital to buy real estate because the value of this property is often very large".

 

According to Mr. Tuan, people often perceive securities as an unsafe investment channel because the numbers fluctuate continuously every minute and every second, but real estate brings a more secure feeling when it is a tangible asset. , see and touch. But in the opposite direction, real estate has more risks in terms of legality, liquidity... than securities.

After a period of strong stock growth at the end of 2020, Deputy Dean of the Faculty of International Business - Marketing, Ho Chi Minh City University of Economics Huynh Phuoc Nghia said that cash flow can be differentiated, one direction stays to catch the bottom of stocks or another. Some people hesitated, shifting to other channels, including real estate according to the venting rule.

 

This expert further analyzes, basically, there are 3 interconnected vessels of the capital market: securities, real estate and banking. As a traditional vent, the bank is currently inferior because the deposit interest rate is too low. However, there is still the situation of savings accounts with negotiable interest rates higher than the listed rates with large cash flow depositors. In addition, the bank also has bonds, a tool to attract capital with interest rates better than savings.

 

Stocks are a highly flexible and volatile second vent, with the advantage of accepting any capital flows from small to large. Stocks are often pressured by news releases, even as the global financial investment market becomes flatter, the volatility of this vent occurs at a faster rate.

 

Real estate is more passive than other vents, but it is a traditional investment channel, according to Vietnamese culture. Over the past half-decade, real estate prices have not shown any sign of falling and have continuously increased sharply, becoming a very strong lure to attract capital.

 

Mr. Nghia said that it is still too early to conclude where the money flow will go after the sublimation and strong shaking. "We can observe and wait to see which direction the cash flow moves by observing the three popular channels of the capital market, which are real estate, banking and securities. Which channel will explode in the near future? , which means capital is flowing through those markets," Nghia said.

 

Source: Vnexpress.net

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